Both loops run; the branch decision is open.
Meta AI capex: two coupled loops, one branch decision Capex feeds both a revenue loop and a cost loop; the race between them decides the payoff or the failure branch. AI capex feeds both loops AI compute data centers + silicon ad gains fund next capex market re-rates on patience Ad engine targeting, creative, recs Ad revenue grows impressions + price/ad Dep + opex wall depreciation + infra opex Margin compresses opex drag on op margin The race efficiency vs the wall Payoff branch operating income grows Failure branch FCF near zero, payoff slips