Repricing cycle:
Early-cycle
Late-cycle
Tailwind exhausted
Step stages →
CD repricing waterfall driving NIM, PPNR and EPS
High-cost time deposits mature and are replaced by lower-cost core balances, expanding NIM and flowing through to PPNR and EPS until the high-cost stock exhausts.
High-cost time deposits
full
half
empty
Lower-cost core deposits
non-interest-bearing growth
Earning-asset yield
loan mix lifts yield
maturity chute
falling-rate
environment
NIM expansion
3.28%
3.58%
+30 bp
cost −16 bp
yield +11 bp
PPNR
pre-provision revenue
stable expense base → operating leverage
EPS growth
Q2 $1.52 vs $1.29
finite tailwind: moderates as stock empties
remaining stock: high
high-cost CD outflow
core deposit inflow
yield lift
NIM → PPNR → EPS