Activate rollover gates
0 active Earnings revisions: flat SOXX 5Y max DD: -45.75% FTEC 5Y max DD: -34.95% Drawdown gap: 10.80 pp
Semis cycle rollover mechanism: four gates that flip SOXX concentration from asset to liability Rollover gates Convergence ETF conduits Drawdown Hyperscaler FCF GOOG -$5.9B · META $784M HBM supply easing post-2027 · MU margin Custom-silicon TPU · Trainium · Maia Memory overcapacity contracted HBM delivers Semis rev. threshold: dormant SOXX beta 1.77 top-10 60.5% FTEC 285 names ~36% software SOXX DD -45.75% FTEC DD -34.95% failure condition for the SOXX thesis any active gate routes both ETF paths — SOXX amplifies, FTEC dampens Source: SOXX 1.77 beta, 60.5% top-10; FTEC 285 holdings, ~36% software sleeve. 5Y max drawdowns as reported.
Toggle the four gates individually or use All gates to see the failure condition. Each active gate lights its own conduit into the convergence node; the threshold flips when any gate is live, and flow fans out simultaneously into the SOXX amplifier (beta 1.77 + 60.5% top-10 concentration) and the FTEC dampener (285-name breadth + ~36% software sleeve). The terminal drawdown gap is the SOXX-vs-FTEC liability gap.