Resolve the loop:
Backlog converts, margin lifts
Timing slips, dilution returns
BigBear.ai cash-burn, dilution, and government-pipeline mechanism
BigBear.ai balance sheet
Negative-FCF operations
operating margin −170.4%
TTM FCF −$73.84M
cash burn drain
Convertible notes
$124.6M of 2029 notes
D2E conversion
Jan 2026
shares 252.3M → 479.1M
Liquidity
$409.8M total
$36.3M cash /
$373.5M AFS
Backlog pipeline
$269.6M (+9%
from Dec 2025)
government contracts
delivery valve
GenAI
Ask Sage GenAI
margin lift pump
GM 32.8% (+781bps)
contract timing
lag valve
settle
debt → equity
dilution
convert → revenue
timing slip
another dilutive raise
EBITDA breakeven
path opens
GM 35-40%, +17% rev
Equity re-priced
lower
dilution returns
liquidity reservoir
cash burn / dilution
success: EBITDA breakeven path
failure: equity re-priced