Both conduits
Google: distribution reach
OpenAI: engagement + monetization
AI chatbot competition: distribution pipeline for reach versus engagement and monetization moat for habit and funding
Android
Chrome
Workspace
Search
Distribution defaults
AI Overviews · AI Mode
Apple deal
Siri on iOS 27
Gemini reach
app MAU
MAU milestone
broad reach · defaults-fed
milestone fill
metric war: both claim 1B milestones
different reach bases — no winner
No default pipe
lacks Google's surfaces
Engagement moat
weekly habit
brand · retention
Monetization push
ads · subs · Codex
cash reseeds habit
WAU milestone
weekly habit · engagement-fed
milestone fill
Funding / IPO
confidential filing
Watch which conduit carries the flow and which reservoir fills its milestone.
Distribution pipe pours reach into the MAU reservoir; OpenAI's loop idles.
Flywheel builds habit into WAU while cash reseeds the moat and funds the IPO.