Fiscal forecast miss: grandfathered commitments vs future-project incentives
Tax break granted
dormant · early 2010s
Forecast gate
confidential-data-limited
hyperscale build-out
drives actual claimed
value above forecast
Disclosed miss
dormant → headline cost
Freeze + halve
governor freezes new apps
lawmakers halve future
Grandfathered existing
Amazon · Meta · Google
protected · not clawed back
Future-project incentives
frozen · halved
exposure settles here
Economic exposure sits in the value of
future-project incentives — not past repayment
Both paths
Existing commitments
Future projects