Why Cerebras de-rated on CS-4 launch day: the monetization pivot from one-time hardware sales to recurring inference-token services 1 · pivot — hardware sales to token services OpenAI multi-year deal cloud/svcs revenue ~4x hardware revenue moves from boxes to a recurring consumption line recurring one-time sale, cash now 3 · requirement — selling tokens means deploying systems deployed now — payoff later capex — funds the build-out operating cash flow — thin funding gap 4 · squeeze wider margin squeeze; renting back systems 5 · payoff — later utilization fills racks premium-speed tier lifts per-token economics 2027 payoff margin recovers payoff deferred CS-5 step change · ~2027 downside risk under-utilization · exposure

Flip the scenario — watch the mix tilt, the racks fill, and which payoff terminal lights up.