zone · watch
gate confirms
floor breaks
On-chain cost-basis architecture: full capitulation vs flow-confirmed bottom
on-chain holder-cost ledger
buyers underwater
MVRV margin
capitulation register
Bottoming zone
MVRV Z 0.24 near zero
Z 0.24 above zero
STH/LTH 0.84 vs 1.29
Confirmation gate
Z crosses below zero
STH/LTH converge
ETF + stablecoin flows
reclaim 200-day MA
ETF + stablecoin
capital formation
Branch A
time machine confirmed
entry validated
Branch B
invalidate · cheaper
break floor + LTH
deep-cycle path
break June-30 low + realized floor
LTH selling · flows negative
Bottoming zone — valuation near floor
Z 0.24 (above zero) · STH/LTH gap open · flows tentative — no branch set
200-day MA ~69.9K
STH basis ~67.5K
spot ~63.5K
June-30 low ~58.5K
invalidation line
realized floor ~54K
valuation floor
mining cost base
not the binding gate