Capacity discipline holds
Discipline breaks / CXMT catches up
AI memory demand through a constrained fab capacity path into pricing power and capex, with a reversal loop
memory fab
advanced-node + HBM packaging
wafer fab
advanced
lead time
ramp delay
HBM stack
advanced
packaging
staged capacity
demand visibility
demand ahead
shortage widens
gap closes
pricing power
record margins
record economics
multitrillion capex
capital returns
overbuild
CXMT / China
scaling into the gap
supply catches demand?
gap holds
caught up
supply surge
pricing loop intact
pricing power persists
pricing loop unwinds
margins normalize
accelerator buildout
HBM + server-DRAM demand
total demand