Monetization keeps pace
Monetization lags
From self-funding to external capital: how the AI capex gap gets financed
1
AI capex outpaces OCF
compounds faster than cash flow
funding gap opens
data-center capital stack
2
IG bonds
Private credit
asset-based, largest
Securitized abs/cmbs
Equity / institutional
JVs + direct
equity raises
3
Debt service & leases
rises as FCF goes to zero
Monetization
pace gates path
4
Accretive equity
debt stays serviceable
mega-caps near net cash
5
Failure (Oracle-style)
financing > returns
cut to BBB- · July 2026
FCF → zero forces
more external financing
raises debt service