The AI capex to private-IG-credit funding loop rising debt share long-dated IG issuance spills into private credit long-dated paper held capacity recycles refinancing dries up 1 Hyperscaler AI capex roughly tripled since '23 2 Debt financing of capex debt share of capex rising 3 Public IG absorption limit -> spills to private credit 4 Private IG origination Apollo · Athene, long-dated 5 Insurer / pension long-dated liabilities absorb loop holds loop strains strain signals capex slows refinancing dries revenue lag