GPU-collateralized debt loop: interest clock and the refinancing wall
GPU fleet = collateral
take-or-pay
contracted cash
recourse
~$31.4B
non-recourse
~$3.7B
proceeds
borrow
secured debt
build
proceeds buy GPUs
re-hypothecate
new collateral
interest clock
accrues per rung
keeps returning to credit markets
maturing debt
2026-28
refinancing
wall
maturities
capex outruns cash
credit gate
yield give-up
~5.5pp
reset
refinance terms
or deleverage
fail point
liquidity erosion
interest clock
moderate
backlog to cash
ahead
refinancing wall
far
outlook: reset
stress the loop
heal the loop