Neutron first-flight schedule:
How the Neutron first-flight schedule gates backlog conversion into two valuation outcomes Contracted backlog converts only as launch capacity comes online; the Neutron medium-lift pad timeline builds toward a first-flight gate whose on-time or slip state reroutes the same operating base into re-rating headroom or multiple compression. Contracted backlog contracted launches converts as capacity comes online launch capacity online Electron / HASTE small-payload class steady revenue same in both states production medium-lift growth unlock stage-1 tank on track pad delivery Q4 '26 window first-flight gate Re-rating headroom mix shifts to medium-lift Multiple compression mix shift delayed same operating base — the first-flight schedule sets the valuation