BABA

non-GAAP · quarter print

Yes bar frozen at $1.59

WMT

non-GAAP · quarter print

Yes bar frozen at $0.74

DE

GAAP · 60-day drift example

Yes bar frozen at $4.72 → consensus ~$4.79

+$0.07

consensus · real p · yes odds · edge

Frozen Polymarket threshold vs moving consensus: how the odds gap forms and where the edge lives print due EPS level yes odds ($) frozen bar · $4.72 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 creation ~60 days to the print

Illustrative mechanism — odds, real-p and the edge magnitude are approximate snapshots, not a price forecast.