toggle the Fed path fork
The tightening-cycle gate on BofA's $5,000 gold target Fed tightening cycle holds 3.50-3.75% · 9/18 FOMC see a hike hawkish expectations 10-yr ~4.65% real yield · USD elevated soft data prints Sept hike odds → ~31% eases yields & USD gold pays no interest 0% yield vs yield-bearing debt target capped eased yields & dollar gold rebounds ~10% off the early-Aug low BofA's stated condition structural $5,000 target requires the tightening cycle to end dovish path Aug-CPI soft · FOMC quiet climbs ~$600-700 gap to $5,000 hawkish revival CPI or FOMC revives hike odds stays ~13-16% below target