Failure vector:
Thesis failure via political-pressure convergence or priced-in divergence
Two parallel causal branches that each break the overweight-reinvestor thesis: a convergence branch driven by Warren letters forcing consumer pass-through, and a divergence branch where Apple/Amazon multiples already price in reinvestment while Ford is not yet credited.
Branch one · convergence
Branch two · priced-in
Overweight-reinvestor thesis
Apple + Ford over refund-passers
Thesis fails
overweight-reinvestor bet unwinds
Warren letters
Aug 7 2026 · 7 retailers pressed
Pressure builds
on Apple, Ford reinvestors
Reinvestors capitulate
refunds redirected to consumers
Deployment split collapses
reinvestor ≈ passer strategy
Relative bet unwinds
convergence kills the spread
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Multiples priced in
Apple 40.6x · Amazon 41.9x fwd
Ford not credited
trailing PE −7.5x · 120D −1%
Trigger fires
Apple meets · OR · Ford EV dips
Divergence discredited
priced-in upside · Ford downside
Asymmetric outcome
long expensive · short uncredited
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Convergence failure is live.
Warren's Aug 7 2026 letters press reinvestors to pass refunds through. If reputational pressure forces Apple and Ford to capitulate, the deployment split collapses and the relative-performance bet unwinds.