Durability lever
A · cap holds
B · yields re-spike
How Treasury long-end buybacks transmit into a crypto risk-on bid, and where that transmission holds or breaks
20-yr high (2007)
5Y
10Y
20Y
30Y
Treasury yield curve · long end
1
Long-end yields surge
30Y ~5% · highest since 2007
cap
re-spike
3
30Y falls ~10bps
long bonds rally
2
U.S. Treasury
buyback pump
$2B → ≥$4B / op
10–30Y support
4
financial conditions
ease · liquidity in
5
BTC > $65K
risk-on bid
ETH
+6%
XRP
+6%
same session risk-on
6 · the durability decision
A · relief trade holds
sustained yield suppression
inflation cool · Fed on hold
B · framing breaks
30Y re-spikes anyway
other catalysts credited