scenario
on-track
stress test
ramp stage
2025
2026
H2 26
2027
downside
replay
scenario: on-track
Grasberg · underground block cave
flood 2025
block cave ore
haulage
ore to ramp
output ramp
full capacity
guide cut
H2 2026 · ~65%
late 2027 · full
2025
2026
H2 2026
late 2027
copper near record
LME ~$14,100/t · tight
peak EPS torque
volume × record price
ramp delivered
premium holds ~48x
downside branch
multiple compresses
the same torque that drives the rally is the downside lever
mechanism step