Reopening deal?
No deal
Deal signed
Closed Hormuz plus finite buffer depletion, forked on the reopening deal
Persian Gulf
Gulf of Oman
Strait of Hormuz
Gulf output shut in
Gulf output restarts
shortfall met by
drawing the buffers
inventory draws
spare capacity
soft demand
non-Gulf barrels
Buffers depleting
bridge is finite
Reprices higher
buffers run out
Premium unwinds
shut-ins restart