Flip the Neutron gate
On-time · Q4 '26
Further slip
Rocket Lab: two revenue engines feed the ~59x trailing-sales multiple, gated by Neutron first flight
launch engine
recurring Electron cadence
90+ launches in backlog
space systems engine
build-to-print satellites
reaction wheels · solar arrays
pipeline / backlog pool
record $2.36B backlog · +$437M new launch
Electron · HASTE · Neutron contracts
backlog conversion → revenue
+62% YoY · Q1 +63.5%
~59x trailing sales
no operating profit — unproven optionality
upside: avg PT ~$110 · +45%
net loss ~$49M
op margin -33%
Neutron gate
first flight · Q4 '26
gate open
on-time success
medium-lift + defense
missions reach the pool
→ 59x can hold / expand
further slip
no new medium-lift
primary de-rating event
→ 59x P/S de-rates