Earnings-guidance feedback loop and the shared hyperscaler capex-digestion failure path re-rate up funds capex capex cut · order lull slower conversion up-cycle loop NVDA 33x · deepest backlog guidance is the swing MRVL re-rated to ~85x little room for error AVGO pre-de-rated ~13% confirm-and-raise trigger hyperscaler capex orders → backlog · shared digestion gate backlog converts AI-semi revenue chain committed backlog converts multiple expands re-rate up holds loop group de-rating chain repriced together watch signals 1 hyperscaler guidance cuts 2 order cancels digestion talk 3 margin compression 4 supply outruns realized demand