Validated loop
Failure branch
toggle the loop's terminal outcome
revenue breakeven
financing stress
capex guidance
power supply
signals: revenue converging · power available · financing calm · guidance steady
signals: revenue gap · financing stress · capex cut · power constrained
1
Hyperscaler capex
committed up front
2
Capital to compute
semis · chip orders scale
3
Power / energy
the binding gate
open
shut
4
AI revenue accrues
loop validates
gap vs break-even
monetization loop
5
break-even math
revenue must converge
6
Revenue gap
persists vs break-even
Financing stress
private AI layer
Capex cuts
guidance revised
capex cut throttles the loop