Flywheel intact
Breakage
Debt-funded capex to contracted-revenue flywheel and its failure modes
1 · Fund
debt > $10B Q2'26
$3.1B HPC-backed loan
2 · Build
capex $35–39B FY26E
1.5 GW live · 3.7 GW contracted
3 · Pre-sell
~$104B contracted backlog
+ $25B new Q3 commitments
4 · Convert
contracted revenue
demand > supply
leverage
growth
accelerant
failure gate
revenue → debt service
debt scope
net
$29.5–33B
~$35B BS
backlog = contracted commitments, not recognized revenue
debt metrics vary by source · FY26E capex guidance directional
conversion keeps pace → debt serviced · leverage = growth accelerant