Base case
ARPU erosion
Subscriber deceleration
AI margin disappointment
Each lever throttles one supply line that must earn the ~80x-sales price.
Starlink unit economics and consolidated burn against the ~80x-sales price
Starlink —
the only profitable segment
subs 2x · op income flat
new competition
LEO + terrestrial rivals
AI-compute engine
margins unproven
Consolidated burn
space + AI + Terafab
net loss · cash burn
must be earned by
faster forward revenue
ARPU erosion
growth to low-price intl plans
price extraction: 2026 hikes
raises the bar
~80x sales
trailing P/S multiple
price holds
pending forward delivery
multiple compresses
revenue growth slows