Fed holds - pullback
Fed hikes - regime change
Hormuz oil shock conduit and the Fed gate
Oil flows from the Strait of Hormuz choke into crude and inflation, where the Fed gate reroutes the outcome between a shallow pullback and a valuation regime change.
Iran
Persian Gulf
UAE / Oman
Crude
geopolitical premium
Headline inflation
oil feeds prices
Fed reaction
policy threshold
holds - shock fades
Strait of Hormuz
oil supply chokepoint
attacks / blockade threat
Shallow pullback
premium fades
Regime change
valuations compress
Fed holds its rate - the oil premium unwinds and equities pull back, as they have before.