Ample reserves
Drawn-down reserves
Toggle the reserve regime to watch how far the funding squeeze propagates: dealer balance-sheet capacity is the binding gate just as the reserve cushion goes away.
How fixed dealer balance-sheet capacity and drawn-down reserve balances gate how far a funding squeeze propagates
Repo-market cross-section: Treasury issuance flows into a dealer warehouse capped by the supplementary leverage ratio, a hedge-fund basis trade draws repo demand, and reserve balances either damp the system or fail to when drawn down.
Treasury debt
marketable
$5T → $25T
collateral in
basis trade
~$1trn repo
long cash · short futures
repo demand
dealer balance sheet
warehouse + finance
SLR capacity cap
capacity in use
reserve balances
dominant stabilizer
ample
drawn-down
damping when ample
repo stress
0
85th
100
spreads stay narrow
leveraged
fixed-income book
insulated
repo-squeeze chain
1 treasury debt $5T → $25T dealers flat · SLR
2 basis complex ~$1trn taxes capacity
3 reserves smooth dominant stabilizer
4 stressed tail >85th pct spreads widen
5 no cushion basis gap → leveraged book