Hawkish persistence
Softer read
July FOMC minutes as Wednesday's duration gate
1 · FOMC minutes
July 28-29 meeting
9-3 vote · 3 dissents
publishes Wed 2:00 p.m.
2 · tone read
hawkish persistence
rates stay elevated
softer read
rates ease
3 · rate-expectation conduit
discount rates elevated
4 · multiples react
ADI
93x fwd
KEYS
71x fwd
TJX
37x fwd
TGT
17.6x fwd
LOW
15x fwd
5 · KEYS / ADI most exposed · LOW / TGT yield-buffered
6 · two-way test — morning earnings fair value
rate discounting dominates the close