Deal path
Both
Breakdown path
US-Canada tariff pause: a three-day deadline branch
A suspended 50% Section 338 tariff layer feeds a three-day pause decision gate that branches into a deal path and a breakdown path, both converging on an unchanged structural dispute and a modest index effect.
Aug 19
50% layer due
3-day pause
Aug 21-22
resolve
50% Section 338 layer
broad Canadian goods
Decision point
deal 'close', docs pending
Deal path
shock + noise removed
Breakdown path
re-escalation
autos → 15%, US content
alcohol ban + retaliation off
dairy quotas adjusted
energy conduit revived
50% re-escalates
on the earlier layer
retaliation returns
either branch → same tape read
structural dispute unchanged
steel · aluminum · autos · lumber · quotas · content
SPY/QQQ: modest effect — rates channel dominates tape